Property prices, one minute they’re up, then they’re down, and there’s a whole lot of scaremongering in between.

In this post, I’m going to shed some light on the current property market, focusing on what is happening with UK property prices and why sometimes things aren’t exactly as they seem. 

Are House Prices Up or Down?

Average House Prices in East Sussex - Land Registry

Honestly, whether house prices are up or down and whether that’s a good or a bad thing can vary hugely depending on where you’re getting the information. 

Generally speaking, The Land Registry’s UK House Price Index is one of the most reliable sources for this information, but it tends to lag by about two months. According to the Land Registry, the average price of a UK property increased by 13.6% in August year-on-year. 

While the exact average price for a UK home during this period was estimated to be £295,903, the regional figures vary. In Scotland, the average price currently is around £195,391, while in England, it sits at £315,365, with properties in the South East coming in at £363,552. 

Rightmove, Nationwide and Halifax also publish their own sets of data each month. These numbers tend to be updated more regularly and are based on confirmed sales and mortgage lending. While they, too, show an upward trend in house prices, their figures aren't always taking in the whole picture. 

Can You Trust House Price Statistics?

This leads me to the big question. If the data provided by the Land Registry is usually two months behind and the numbers given by Rightmove, Halifax and Nationwide aren’t giving the complete picture, can you trust these statistics?

The short answer is no - but that doesn’t mean they aren’t useful. 

House price statistics are a bit like weather predictions, they can help you plan, but you shouldn’t trust them 100%. 

If monitoring house prices is something you’re interested in, then cross-reference the data from multiple sources and be mindful of external influences. 

What’s Happening to House Prices This Christmas and Beyond?

If the Land Registry, Rightmove, Halifax, and Nationwide statistics are anything to go by, then it looks like house prices will remain high and on the rise as 2022 comes to a close. 

However, with the cost of living crisis and rising mortgage rates lurking in the wings, the bigger picture is a bit more complicated. 

Economic uncertainty tends to slow consumer spending, and therefore while I expect house prices to remain high in the foreseeable future, they could begin to drop off at the start of 2023. What’s more, if a recent analysis by Capital Economics is correct, we may see house prices fall by up to 12% by mid-2024. 

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell Your Home?

Whether now is the right time to buy or sell depends largely on your personal situation. 

If you’re a buyer in a position to sit out of this period of economic uncertainty, then it may be better to wait a year or so in the hope that prices drop and mortgage rates fall. On the other hand, there’s no telling when that may be, and if mortgage rates continue to rise, you may be better off locking in a lower rate now. For first-time buyers, the nil-rate tax threshold also recently increased from £300,000 to £425,000, so it may be a good time to get on the ladder. 

For sellers, if you want to sell your home for maximum profit, house prices are at an all-time high. While Rightmove says it took an average of 37 days to sell in September, up from 32 days in May, properties are still in high demand, with the most recent data from HMRC showing that around 104,000 transactions went through in September this year.

Ultimately, whether now is the right time for you depends on your unique situation, but I’d be more than happy to give my two pence. Give me a call at 01424 772954 or message me at info@paulstrippestateagent.com for honest and impartial property advice.